Published
2024-03-31
Section
Articles
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
How to Cite
FORECASTING HIV PREVALENCE AMONG INDIVIDUALS AGED 15-49 YEARS IN VENEZUELA USING HOLT’S LINEAR METHOD
Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Thabani NYONI
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
Keywords: Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, HIV prevalence
Abstract
This study uses annual time series data of HIV prevalence among individuals aged 15-49 years for Venezuela from 1990 to 2020 to predict future trends of HIV prevalence over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.5 and 0.9 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual HIV prevalence among individuals aged 15-49 years will sharply decline over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to strengthen HIV prevention measures and improve HIV case finding especially among high-risk groups.
