European Science Methodical Journal

PROJECTION OF HIV PREVALENCE AMONG INDIVIDUALS AGED 15-49 YEARS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA USING HOLT’S LINEAR METHOD

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI

ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe

Thabani NYONI

Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Keywords: Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, HIV prevalence

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Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of HIV prevalence among individuals aged 15-49 years for South Africa from 1990 to 2020 to predict future trends of HIV prevalence over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.6 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual HIV prevalence among individuals aged 15-49 years will slightly decline over the out of sample period but still remain high. Therefore, we encourage authorities to scale up HIV testing, increase ART coverage and strengthen HIV prevention among this age group.